Commercial Forecasting Manager

Job Description

We have an exciting opportunity for a Commercial Forecasting Manager, to join our expanding team and join us during a significant growth period. In this role, you'll be at the centre of shaping the financial insight that powers our commercial decision-making and drives innovation across our tariffs and propositions.

You'll blend analytical rigour with commercial curiosity, building models and forecasts that ensure we understand the value, risk and opportunity behind every idea we bring to market. Working closely with finance, pricing, proposition and senior leadership teams, you'll translate complex modelling into clear, compelling insight that supports confident decisions. Whether evaluating new business opportunities, stress-testing assumptions, or responding to shifts in the market and regulatory landscape, you'll provide the foresight that helps us stay competitive, agile, and financially resilient.

Responsibilities

• Develop and maintain robust commercial models: Create and evolve the analytical frameworks that underpin our pricing, investment decisions and long-term strategy, ensuring every model is accurate, reliable and commercially insightful.
• Forecast financial performance with precision: Produce clear, accurate forecasts of margin, NPV sales and other critical financial metrics to guide the development and launch of new and innovative tariffs.
• Build and assess compelling business cases: Evaluate new propositions and market opportunities, ensuring each is grounded in strong commercial logic and aligned to our strategic goals.
• Work in close partnership with finance: Align assumptions, KPIs and reporting standards, ensuring a consistent and transparent view of commercial performance across the business.
• Stress-test assumptions through scenario analysis: Run sensitivity tests and model alternative pathways to understand risks, identify opportunities and guide better-informed decision-making.
• Translate complex modelling into meaningful insight: Present modelling outputs to senior stakeholders in a way that is clear, engaging and supports confident, data-driven decisions.
• Stay tuned into a dynamic market: Monitor competitor activity, regulatory developments and industry trends to keep modelling assumptions up to date and commercially relevant.

What you'll need to succeed

We're looking for a commercially astute and analytically driven forecasting professional with a strong academic foundation in Finance, Economics, Statistics or a related field.

You'll bring proven experience of building robust commercial models within the energy sector or another complex, data-rich environment, with advanced Excel skills and the confidence to create models from the ground up. With a deep understanding of key financial metrics and how they drive performance, you'll turn complex data into clear, actionable insights, communicate confidently with senior stakeholders, and demonstrate exceptional attention to detail in everything you deliver.

Essentials

• A strong academic foundation in Finance, Economics, Statistics or a related discipline.
• Proven experience in financial/commercial modelling within the energy sector or another complex, data-rich industry.
• Advanced proficiency in Excel and commercial forecasting tools, with demonstrable experience of building models from the ground up.
• A solid understanding of key financial metrics and how they drive commercial performance.
• The ability to interpret complex data and convert it into actionable, commercially relevant insights.
• Excellent communication and stakeholder engagement skills, with confidence presenting to senior audiences.
• High attention to detail and a commitment to accuracy in every output.

Desirables

• Experience working within regulated energy markets, such as electricity, gas or renewables.
• Familiarity with pricing structures, tariffs or energy trading mechanisms.

Hybrid working explained: When and where you'll be in the office

Our office is based in Chippenham, Wiltshire. For this role, we're looking for candidates who can come in to our Chippenham office, once a week, or once a month, based on location.

We offer both formal and informal flexible working options. Full-time hours are 37.5 per week, Monday to Friday.

The office is fully accessible, allowing everyone to participate fully in their working lives regardless of any mobility challenges. We promote work-life balance and flexibility through hybrid working, which combines both remote and office work.

Benefits you can rely on

Great allowances for hybrid working:

🏡 £500 work from home allowance - an annual allowance paid monthly alongside your salary to support with working from home costs.

🚆 £500 travel allowance - an annual allowance paid monthly alongside your salary to support with travelling to work costs.

£500 annual development allowance:

to spend on your chosen development area, whether that's in your current role, or future roles.

15% annual bonus:

company-wide bonus scheme designed to reward collective teamwork and delivery of results across the whole business.

Holiday:

25 days annual leave, a day off for your birthday, additional days leave for long service, plus bank holidays. You'll also have the option to buy additional leave, allowing for a better work-life balance.

Ethical Pension with Aviva:

Good Energy offers an ethical pension plan provided by Aviva, with employer-matched contributions up to 7.5% of your base salary.